Spares Management and Modeling Presented by Dr. Craig Sherbrooke & Mr. Kevin Griffiths TBD - Please call for more information Sign up: seminars@tfdg.com or call 831-649-3800

Seminar Brochure

About the Seminar

We have recently conducted a major overhaul of this course to provide the attendee with more case histories and management experience as well as an understanding of the state-ofthe- art in spares modeling. The theory underlying the system approach is presented. Then field test results are described where this approach consistently has produced the same system availability at budget savings of over fifty percent. A comprehensive discussion of better procedures for demand prediction is included on the second day. These procedures take into account the fact that real world demand rates do not stay constant, but vary over time. It is shown that the optimal availability model is appropriate for a wide variety of applications such as periodic resupply, flyaway kits, redistribution, sale of assets, contractor repair, and repair-in-place. On day three the VMetric model is demonstrated along with a series of case studies. The attendee should complete the course with a clear appreciation of the advantages of the system approach to stockage as well as the practical issues of model implementation.

The course is aimed at senior management. Although the topics are occasionally technical and some modeling background will be useful, it is not necessary. The course is much more oriented toward the introduction of a conceptual framework of use to a non-technical manager. The framework will be useful to guide the discussion of how a company or agency can improve the management of their supply chain. The basic concepts used in decision-aiding models are discussed to the level needed to gain a reasonable understanding of their application and capabilities as well as their short-comings. These concepts are then applied to the expanded discussion of where the field is going and what new capabilities are available.

Course Outline

Day 1: Basic Issues in Spares Management

• History of Optimal Stockage Models
• Defects of Standard Item Policies: Ignore Item Cost, Hardware Indenture, Supply Echelon
• Optimal Cost vs. Availability Curves
• Field Test Results
• Status of Optimal Model Implementation by Military Service
• Optimal Policy Depends on Cannibalization
• Single-Site Model for Repairable Items
• Palms Theorem and Poisson Distribution
• Marginal Analysis and Convexity
• Relationship of Item Backorders to System Availability

Day 2: Combination of Optimal Models with Better Demand Prediction

• Multi-Echelon Models - METRIC
• Generalization of the Poisson Distribution
• Negative Binomial to Model Non-Constant Demand Rates
• Binomial to Model Wearout Items
• Multi-Indenture Problem - VMetric
• Demand Prediction
• Bayesian Procedures
• Predicting Mean Demand and Variance
• Experiments in Demand Prediction
• VMetric Applications to Other Problems
• Periodic Resupply and No Resupply
• Repair in Place, Redundancy, Contract Repair
• DRIVE: Optimal Distribution and Depot Repair Scheduling
• Utilizing Stock Location and Condition
• Field Test Results

Day 3: VMetric V 4 — The Implementation of Vari-Metric Theory

• Input data — Defining the Problem (repair or replenish)
• The Impact of the System Structure
• Understanding the Runtime Options
• Interpretation of the Modeling Results
• Case Studies:
• Multi System Modeling with Common Parts
• Modeling a Part that is Both an LRU and an SRU
• Wrap-up and Discussion

At the end of each day's seminar and also on Friday morning, TFDG staff will be available for hands-on instruction in the operation and functionality of VMetric. We will either load the software onto your laptop computers for evaluation purposes, or you may use our training facilities.

About the Presenters

Dr. Craig C. Sherbrooke is the foremost authority on spares stockage modeling. In 1966 at the RAND Corporation he developed METRIC, the first multi-echelon model for the optimization of repairable spare parts. METRIC, or one of its descendants such as the Aircraft Availability Model (AAM) or OPUS, is used worldwide and by all U.S. military services. Sherbrooke recently developed the fourth generation of that technique known as VMetric and implemented it on microcomputers. He will present the first and second days; the third day with the VMetric demo and case studies will be given by Mr. Kevin Griffiths who has extensive Spares Modelings experience with installing VMetric for a range of clients.

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